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Bitcoin (BTC) will start another week in an unstable position of nearly $ 20,000 ahead of a new macro upheaval.
Indeed, after sealing the highest weekly profits since March, the largest cryptocurrencies are struggling to maintain recently recovered levels.
With the major resistance zones still overhead and inflation data coming out later in the week, risk assets everywhere may be worried over the next few days.
At the same time, crypto market sentiment is showing signs of recovery, and indicators on the chain continue to emphasize what should be the bottom of Bitcoin’s latest macro prices.
With inconsistent data everywhere, Cointelegraph explores potential market volatility factors over the coming week.
The weekly closing price on June 10 was around $ 20,850, which was nothing special for BTC / USD, yet the pair achieved the highest 7-day growth in a few months.
At the end of Sunday, completely higher than the position at the beginning of the week by $ 1,600, Bitcoin sealed a progress not seen since March.
However, success did not continue as the time following the weekly closing price turned negative. At the time of writing this, BTC / USD was targeting $ 20,400. With Cointelegraph Markets Pro TradingView Indicated.
Bitcoin’s ability to maintain current levels is critical in determining mood this summer, as global equity bailouts offer cryptocurrencies the opportunity to erase some of their losses in recent months. May be.
Therefore, commentators, including the trading suite decent radar, took an interest in the weekly chart.
Watch every week $ BTC futures. Current candles are set to close with a moon raker and a bullish swallow bar above the weekly vwap. The momentum is also increasing.If stock prices continue to rise and there is a summer rally $ BTC And the cipher should probably continue. https://t.co/tlkrnTsG33
Decentrader (@decentrader) July 10, 2022
Others were less enthusiastic and pointed out that BTC / USD was still below the essential 200-week moving average (WMA) by about $ 22,500.
In the previous bear market, 200 WMA served as a general support level, with Bitcoin temporarily wicking under it to put in a macro bottom. However, this time it looks different because $ 22,500 didn’t show up on the chart for a month.
#BTC Weekly candles increased by + 15%, but remain resistant at less than 200MA for 3 weeks.
The lower timeframes are a bit more bullish and the indicators are chilling, but the market is still afraid.
Will #Bitcoin Would you like to break back beyond the weekly 200MA before the weekly close? pic.twitter.com/NZXbxK8Oi2
Steve Courtney ~ Crypto Crew University (@CryptoCrewU) July 8, 2022
Meanwhile, zooming out, popular trader TechDev has put forward a more optimistic outlook for the rest of 2022.
By the end of the year, he claimed that over the weekend, with the more important WMA collection, Bitcoin would completely end its “re-accumulation phase”.
“BTC flipping 32-35K may confirm the end of re-accumulation and fixes after this year,” TechDev said. Said Twitter followers.
“When both 100W and 50W EMAs fall into this range, imo is most likely to occur. Currently 100W is 34.8K and 50W is 37.2K.”
Elsewhere, ongoing asset clearing from Celsius, a perplexed crypto lending platform, has been added to sales pressure.
Celsius will continue to send the remaining crypto assets to the exchange. A few hours ago, 2,000 wBTC was transferred from the main wallet and a series of hops eventually hit Coinbase and Binance.
Remaining major assets:
410k stETH ($ 479mm)
16k wBTC ($ 342mm) pic.twitter.com/ae6viYL1JkLight (@lightcrypto) July 10, 2022
The beginning of Macro Week Social anxiety In China.
The market felt tense when protesters demanded the release of frozen funds in a scandal involving both bankers and local governments accused of misusing the COVID-19 tracking app.
At the time of writing, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.5%, while the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong fell 3.1%.
Europe was a little stronger with the slow growth of the FTSE 100 and Germany’s DAX, but the US is not yet open.
But before Wall Street returned, the US dollar index (DXY) was already on the rise, canceling the retracement that brought the cool end of last week.
The DXY was 107.4 on July 11, just 0.4 points down from the 20-year high that was seen a few days ago.
Analyzing the situation, an analyst at trading company The Rock described DXY as “almost extreme” in terms of year-to-date growth.
“Based on the extreme rise so far this year, the DXY is now up 16% year-on-year,” he says. I have written..
“This is almost extreme historically, and unfortunately it usually coincides with the market’s major financial stress, recession, or both.”
Bitcoin rose in parallel with the index last week, breaking the traditional inverse correlation with the DXY.
If that’s not enough, the old topic of inflation tends to provide further testing of market resilience this week.
US Consumer Price Index (CPI) read out June is due on July 13th, and monthly figures are expected to be even higher year-on-year.
The higher the inflation rate and the more it deviates from already high expectations, the more risky assets tend to react in anticipation of the reaction from policy makers.
So for macro analyst Alex Kruger, the potential trajectory for this week is clear.
“It gets messy,” he summarized on Twitter.
This week’s theme
# 1 CPI inflation. The consensus is higher, 8.8% year-on-year and 1.1% for mothers. My view: It gets even higher and big dips are bought.
# 2 Revenue. This week is mainly finance. It should be okay.
# 3 Europe’s gas crisis. Put downward pressure on risk and the euro.
It gets messy. https://t.co/LCmt2GRcHl
Alex Krger (@krugermacro) July 10, 2022
Although the CPI has removed many of the major inflation indicators, it has caught the attention of mainstream commentators over the weekend, and this week’s numbers imply that cats could get into pigeons.
“Some people quickly point out that this indicator is negative, as inflation in the US consumer price index could be very close to 9% next week,” said economist Mohamed Ellerian. Reacted..
“Yes … but it captures the pain that many feel, especially the underprivileged parts of society, and it affects inflation expectations.”
On the other hand, a kneeling reaction can definitely stimulate the Bitcoin market alongside other risk assets. Or, as seen in previous CPI events, it can at least cause high volatility.
A signal that BTC investments at current prices have historically unmatched risk / reward ratios, with multiple Bitcoin price indicators flashing “bottom” or hitting record lows. Is not in short supply.
The latest indicator to join the herd this week is the Moving Average Convergence / Divergence (MACD) of the weekly chart.
MACD effectively tracks chart trends that are already in progress. This includes subtracting the 26-period exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA.
If the resulting value is less than zero, Bitcoin tends to be a bottoming scenario. So, if past criteria are repeated, so could a recent trip to $ 17,600.
A #Bitcoin If the weekly MACD is below the zero line, price yields are always at the bottom. pic.twitter.com/5U1Q13Ybju
Dave the Wave (@davthewave) July 10, 2022
Meanwhile, commentator Matthew Highland I got it A similar MACD structure continues to work on the 3-day chart.
“The three-day MACD is still on the bullish cross,” said market analyst Kevin Svenson. Added..
“Despite the pullback, I remain bullish here in the medium term.”
As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is already at the most “oversold” level in history.
Meanwhile, last week, one trader called July 15th as the key date for another charting feature to call the bottom. It consists of two separate MAs.
As a modest silver lining, the latest data suggests that the average crypto investor is slowly regaining confidence.
Related: Top 5 cryptocurrencies to watch this week: BTC, UNI, ICP, AAVE, QNT
Based on previous strength, crypto market sentiment reached its highest level since early May on the weekend and is now 22/100.
While still in the realm of “extreme fear” Crypto Fear & Greed Index’s The Renaissance has fallen to 8/100 in the meantime, in sharp contrast to what happened in the last two months. This is below the previous bottom of the bear market.
The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. All investment and transaction movements carry risks. When making a decision, you need to do your own research.
