- Former Coinbase CTO Balaji Srinivasan bet $1 million on an anonymous Twitter account that Bitcoin will trade above $1 million in 90 days.
- Srinivasan predicts imminent hyperinflation and US dollar collapse
- The bet was placed on very unfavorable terms, and James Medlock, on the other side of the bet, could lock in a huge profit risk-free simply by buying a call option with a $1 million strike for insurance. I can
- The bet comes almost a year after Do-Kwon made an infamous bet over LUNA’s price on another anonymous Twitter account.
I’m no chemist, but one of the most powerful mixtures known to mankind must be that of ego and money.
In what might go down in internet history, former Coinbase CTO and high-profile angel investor Balaji Srinivasan bet $1 million that Bitcoin’s price will rise above $1 million in 90 days. I was.
The bet was confirmed on Twitter, with the other side being anonymous meme enthusiast James Medlock. “And I immediately told her about the bet.”
what is the bet?
The bet started when Medlock posted the following tweet. This is a harmless tweet outlining his belief that the US will never experience hyperinflation, apparently in response to some crypto enthusiasts declaring it inevitable.
I’d bet a million dollars that the US wouldn’t go into hyperinflation
— James Medlock (@jdcmedlock) March 16, 2023
It should have ended there. However, Srinivasan declared that he would “take that bet.” not only that, very unfavorable Clause. Here’s the setup: Medlock sent 1 BTC and Srinivasan sent $1 million to escrow, the latter denominated in USDC stablecoin.
In theory, if hyperinflation hits and the US dollar collapses, Bitcoin will explode profitably. Therefore, the bet turned from hyperinflation to the price of Bitcoin.
If Bitcoin trades above $1 million on June 17th, the kitten belongs to Medlock. If not, Srinivasan will receive the prize.
I’ll make that bet.
Buy 1 BTC.
Send $1 million.
1 BTC is worth ~$26,000, so this is odds of ~40:1.
The period is 90 days.
All we need is a mutually agreed-upon administrator who will be there to resolve this, even if the digital dollar devalues.
If someone knows how to do this… https://t.co/tcuBNd679T pic.twitter.com/6Aav9KeJpe
— Balaji (@balajis) March 17, 2023
there is no point in betting
Clearly, this bet doesn’t make sense for a variety of reasons. First, the original tweet was a joke. A million dollars would be worthless in the event of hyperinflation.
But the crux of it is the condition. Looking at the market odds, this is a long shot of near impossible odds. In fact, if Medlock were so inclined, the majority of the bets could be guaranteed to his Medlock in about 30 seconds and in a risk-free manner.
All he has to do is go to the market and buy a Bitcoin call option with a strike price of $1 million on the same expiry date of the bet (June 17th). This will cost you pennies in comparison, and could put the bulk of $1 million in your pocket.
Of course, everyone knows this and this bet is nothing more than a publicity or some kind of self-marketing stunt by Srinivasan. Either way, he reportedly already owns a ton of bitcoin, and betting doesn’t matter too much to him. call me a cynic But there’s also the fact that Srinivasan started the podcast a month before him.
Interestingly, Medlock did not have 1 BTC worth $26,000 at the time. Poker he’s a player Isaac Haxton stepped in and he covered 1 BTC (there was no rise). Medlock also said it will donate 70% of the total after-tax prize money to charity.
What does it take to win a bet?
It’s hard to imagine what the world would look like if this bet were to win.A 3600% increase to $1 million per bitcoin in 90 days would make bitcoin’s market cap nearly $20 trillion. This is an astonishing number. For one thing, it’s more than all of the US mortgage debt.
If this happens within 90 days, it could mean the complete collapse of the economy and society as we know it. Anxiety and anarchy will throw the world into chaos.
People will lose their savings and society will collapse almost instantly. Still, there are Bitcoin enthusiasts rooting for Srinivasan in this bet. Go to Figure.
In an interesting twist of fate, it took almost a year to the day that LUNA founder Do Kwon bet on another anonymous Twitter account that LUNA would be priced lower in a year’s time than it was then. He turned a year old this week, and I think any crypto investor knows what happened to LUNA.
I think some people have too much money and don’t know what to do with it.