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Here are some predictions for 2023 on financial markets, the economy and stocks.
With the bubble-fueled bull market finally ending in early 2022, I’ve spent the past year and a half cautious. After this year of turmoil, it may be just the right time to see something change in the economy. healthy for a while.
In a world where so many CEOs and analysts are predicting difficult times ahead, this is unexpected.
Note that markets and economies are not the same. And then proceed to some predictions and commentary.
In 2023, increased capabilities and efficiency will be the first to blossom as people across different sectors embrace artificial intelligence. This will increase productivity in the next three to five years, rivaling what spreadsheets, word he processors, and the Internet have achieved in the last 30 years.
Businesses will become more efficient and effective in handling customers, programming, legal costs, and more. Economists will discuss this as an ongoing topic by the end of next year.
Productivity gains mean 2024 corporate earnings surges, stock markets always thinking ahead, AI could help lead tech recovery in 2023 .
Are we already in recession? A few months ago there was debate about whether his second consecutive negative GDP growth was a recession. Indeed, the technology and real estate industries are each in recession.
I expect flat corporate earnings in 2023 and a decent US economy.
In 2024, the demand for such talent will increase again.
Meta Platforms Inc. META,
Amazon.com Inc. AMZN,
Tech companies that cut jobs and acquired luxuries will expand. This is the FAANG Group of shares (Facebook holding company Meta, Apple Inc. AAPL,
Amazon, Netflix Inc. NFLX,
Google holding company Alphabet Inc. GOOGL,
goog,
) and megacaps in general, most of which have risen from 10% to 15%.
The Federal Reserve does not need to cut interest rates as the U.S. economy stabilizes and begins to pick up by the end of the year. It is healthy for people to be rewarded for putting money in banks or lending it to the government.
As someone who has experienced Fed-led bubbles and busts in my nearly 30-year career, I am thrilled to see an economy with normal growth at near-natural interest rate levels for several years.
The consumer price index will be the most volatile in decades. This is another reason the Fed will not be forced to cut rates.
It will be normal and healthy.
Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA,
S&P 500 SPX,
Flattening out, Nasdaq Composite Index COMP,
5% to 10% increase.
Small caps are wild to watch as hundreds of dollars are gone. Then again, some are ready to return the roar, expecting the iShares Russell 2000 ETF IWM.
underperform the Dow.
OPEC+ countries start oversupply while the US increases supply. This would benefit the rest of the U.S. economy as it means lower earnings forecasts for many energy companies, putting pressure on stock prices.
After bottoming out, Bitcoin BTCUSD,
It bounces between $11,000 and $15,000 for most of 2023. Ethereum ETHUSD,
It bounces between $300 and $600.
There are still billions of dollars in valuations of hundreds of cryptocurrencies that will be wiped out in 2023, and the Securities and Exchange Commission and DOJ finally go to the rescue by indicting some people. will be involved in the sale of them.
I want to buy space stocks, but I have to wait for the next good private space company to go public in the next 2-5 years. Rocket Lab USA Inc. holds RKLB.
Companies such as Boeing Co. BA are
Or countries like the UK don’t want their own orbital launch capability. Rocket Lab could be acquired for a huge premium he’s currently valued at less than $2 billion.
Thank you for reading MarketWatch’s Revolution Investing. Happy new year!
