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“Fed Watch” is a macro podcast that stays true to Bitcoin’s rebellious nature. Each episode questions the mainstream and bitcoin narratives by examining current events on a macro basis around the world, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
In this episode, Christian Keroles and I look at some charts and give you the latest market updates on Bitcoin, the Dollar Index (DXY) and the Hong Kong Dollar. Next, he considers the deteriorating situation in Pakistan and asks, “Is Sri Lanka next?” Finally, we discussed the situation in Taiwan and China and read some key snippets. One from China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his other from think tank expert Wang Wen.
First, let’s take a look at the Bitcoin weekly chart. We’ve done this for the past few shows because it’s a good way to anchor the conversation. As you can see below, the price is very stable and sits on the fence in terms of the volume by price indicator on the right.
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Zooming out, the last period of the weekly candlesticks, similar to the time of record, goes back to September-October 2020, just before the monster rally from $10,000 to $40,000. Of course, I’m not saying the exact same thing will happen again, but it’s possible.
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The Dollar Index (DXY) is another major currency to watch today. It’s Bitcoin’s main competition, so I think it’s important to check the dollar in almost every episode.
It looks like it’s peaked for the time being, but there’s no sign of a crash. Instead, the dollar is most likely to form a new high range above 100 in the next few years. This is similar to forming a new high range from 2015 to 2021.
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I should add that a strong dollar is not bearish for Bitcoin. Perhaps initially, a strong dollar correlates with Bitcoin’s decline, but after the dollar stabilizes in a higher range, Bitcoin has traditionally It’s rising.
Below is a screenshot from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority website. Every month they release the stats of their foreign exchange reserves which they use to stabilize the peg. On 3 August 2022, I speculated that maintaining the Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) peg was rapidly depleting reserves. However, according to this press release, it used just over 1% of its reserves in July to maintain its peg. This means that HKD will likely be able to keep the peg for several years.
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Pakistan’s developing situation has much in common with Sri Lanka’s recent collapse. The podcast mentions his involvement with the World Economic Forum (WEF). Pakistan has received hundreds of millions of dollars to revamp its agricultural sector and add national parks.
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Another similarity between Pakistan and Sri Lanka is the significant role Chinese funding has played over the past decade. Sri Lanka lost control of its major port after failing to repay Chinese loans, and Pakistan now owes about $20 billion in high-interest loans to China and Chinese companies.
Pakistan has only two months left on its budget and is desperately seeking new lenders. The Chinese have turned them down and Arab countries are hesitant. The only place to fall back is his return to the IMF, which means severe austerity.
Not surprisingly, both Sri Lanka and Pakistan are important nodes in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
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As we have said many times, the BRI is doomed to failure. They seek to make places and routes that have not yet been explored alone in their long history economically viable. It’s impossible for any amount.
Once again, one of Belt and Road’s key links has been bankrupted by China’s central planners.
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I’ve spent days discussing Nancy Pelosi’s situation and China’s response. my telegram live stream.
In this episode of the podcast, we read excerpts from prominent Chinese ministers and Chinese think tank experts.you can read Read Wang Yi’s full comment hereSuffice it to say that in this article he repeated “One China” over and over again and said that the United States was the side trying to change the status quo. He also issued very harsh words to the incumbent president of Taiwan, Tsai Ing-wen. He said she “betrayed her ancestors”. Another translation said that Yi’s original comment also betrayed her ancestors. [and her race].
of next comment What I read was from Mr. Wang Wen, Chairman of the Chongyang College of Finance, Renmin University of China (RDCY) and Executive Director of the Sino-American People’s Exchange Research Center. As to why China’s response was so weak, he said, “China will surpass the United States in terms of economic power, acquire financial and military power comparable to that of the United States, and will be able to acquire overwhelming military power. Until then, we should not provoke an armed conflict with the United States.” Ability to resist international sanctions. “
Sounds far away to me. I just advise readers not to get caught up in fear-mongering rhetoric about Taiwan and China. They were Sun Tzu’s disciples, and they were told, “If you are weak, be strong.” The sentence also quoted Sun Tzu’s words.
A large-scale military conflict with the United States is not the goal of Chinas foreign policy, nor is it a path to a better life for ordinary people. Do not use force against the enemy, do not go to war unless the situation is critical.
We just wrapped up the podcast talking about upcoming CPI data releases and other things related to Bitcoin. All in all, a must-listen episode!
That’s it for this week. Thank you watchers and listeners.If you like this content please subscribe, review and share! Don’t forget to checkout clip of the Federal Reserve Board on youtube. Liking and sharing videos is the best way to reach new people.
This is a guest post by Ansel Lindner. Opinions expressed are entirely his own and do not necessarily reflect those of his BTC Inc. or Bitcoin Magazine.
