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When will crypto winter end? Bitcoin halvings may not be enough to explain market cycles

July 21, 2022
in News
Reading Time: 6 mins read

hello! Welcome to Distributed Ledger, a weekly crypto newsletter that arrives in your inbox every Thursday. I’m Francis Yue, a crypto reporter for MarketWatch. Introducing the latest information on this bear market.

Find me on twitter @FrancesYue_ Please send us your feedback or let us know what we think we should cover. You can also contact me by email to share your personal story with Cryptography.

Crypt with snap

Bitcoin BTCUSD,
-0.04%
According to CoinDesk data, it has risen 13.4% in the last seven days, trading at around $ 22,844 on Thursday. Ether ETHUSD,
-0.09%
It rose 32% in seven days to about $ 1,534. Meme Token Doge Coin DOGEUSD,
0.02
Another dog-themed token, Shiba Inu SHIBUSD, rose 12.8%.
0.08,
We have been trading 10% higher than 7 days ago.

Cryptographic metrics
Biggest winner

price

% 7 days return

Ethereum Classic

$ 24.21

68.1%

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Lido DAO

$ 1.46

56.4%

cETH

$ 29.88

37.9%

Lido staked ether

$ 1,461

36.4%

polygon

$ 0.86

35.5%

Source: Coin Gecko as of July 21

Largest decliner

price

% 7 days return

PAX Gold

$ 1,701.34

-2.2%

Tether gold

$ 1,706.93

-1.2%

Leo token

$ 5.23

-1.1%

cDAI

$ 0.02

-0.6%

Neutrino USD

$ 0.99

-0.5%

Source: Coin Gecko as of July 21

What drives the crypto cycle?

The general story is that the crypto market cycle tends to match half of Bitcoin. This is a process in which the block reward given to crypto miners is cut in half every time 210,000 blocks are mined, or approximately every four years.

According to historical patterns, a Bitcoin halving event is often followed by a one-year bull market, a one-year bear market, and a two-year recovery.

However, according to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management, half of Bitcoin may not be enough to explain the crypto cycle.

Half of Bitcoin is not always in sync with the big price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies, Hougan said. Hougan also said that the decline in Bitcoin supply wasn’t enough to drive large-scale price volatility, and investors knew the timing, so half the event should have already been priced. Insisted.

Instead, it was a useful innovation in this area that was driving the market cycle, Hougan said in an interview with MarketWatch.

According to Hougan, Bitcoin’s early 2011 and 2013 rallies were driven by an increase in crypto exchange. For example, Coinbase was founded in 2012.

While the launch of Ethereum in 2015 and the rise of the first coin offering frenzy that followed contributed to the crypto boom in 2017, the bull market in 2021 was primarily decentralized finance and non-fungible token growth and the US SEC’s. Hougan, a futures ETF promoted by Bitcoin approval, pointed out.

The crypto market could remain volatile for the rest of the year, according to Hugan. We are still at the end of the de-leveraging process, says Hougan. “We are also dealing with some short-term regulatory headwinds, including those that were expected to be like a turbulent fall of cryptocurrencies from a regulatory perspective.”

However, he expects the cryptocurrency market to begin to take hold in 2023, despite the looming recession. As we enter the next technology cycle of cryptocurrencies, I think some long-term trends that drive cryptocurrency growth will overwhelm macro trends, said Hougan.

Tesla Bitcoin Sale

Tesla when crypto prices plummet Dispose of 75% of Bitcoin holdings According to the Electric Vehicle Marker Revenue Report released Wednesday, it was $ 936 million in the second quarter.

At a conference call, CEO Elon Musk said the sale was made because he was “uncertain” about when the COVID-related blockade in China would diminish and tried to maximize Tesla’s cash position. Stated.

“We shouldn’t consider this a Bitcoin verdict as we are certainly open to increasing Bitcoin holdings in the future,” Musk told analysts on the phone following Tesla’s results.

“The closure in China only raised concerns about the company’s overall liquidity,” Musk said, adding that the company did not sell Dogecoin.

Tesla TSLA,
+ 9.78%
At the beginning of 2021, when cryptocurrencies were trading over $ 30,000, I bought about $ 1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin, but soon 10% of that total on mobile executives characterized as evidence of liquidity. Sold. According to Chief Financial Officer Zachary Kirkhorn, Tesla’s decline in Bitcoin’s remaining bitcoin resulted in more than $ 100 million in quarterly impairment.

MarketWatch Claudia Assis and Jeremy C. Owens I wrote more here At Tesla.

Cryptographic companies, funds

Share Coinbase Global Inc.. coin,
-1.71%
It fell 4.4% to $ 72.00 on Thursday, down 5.7% in the last five trading sessions.Michael Sailor’s Micro Strategy Ltd.
MSTR,
+ 0.33%
It fell 1.8% to $ 283.60 on Thursday, but has risen 39% in the last five days.

Mining company Riot Blockchain Inc.. Riot,
+ 8.55%
Shares on Thursday rose 6.1% to $ 5.23, up 61% in the last five days.Share Marathon Digital Holdings Co., Ltd.
Mara,
+ 8.18%
It has risen 60.9% over the last five days and has risen 3% to $ 12.86. Another miner, Evan International Holdings Co., Ltd... EBON,
-5.07%
Shares fell 6.5% to $ 0.56 on Thursday, but have risen 0.3% in the last five days.

Overstock.com Inc.
OSTK,
+ 0.83%of
Stock prices fell 1.5% to $ 28.65. Stocks increased 13.5% over a five-session period.

Share Block Co., Ltd.
SQ,
-0.03%,
Formerly known as Square, it fell 1.2% to $ 73.90, but that week’s share price rose 18.5%. Tesla, Inc... TSLA,
+ 9.78%
Shares rose 10.4% to $ 819.3, while rising 14.6% in the last five sessions.

PayPal Holdings Co., Ltd.
PYPL,
+ 3.13%
It rose 2.4% to $ 82.20, up 18.2% in 5 sessions. Nvidia Corp.
NVDA,
+ 1.36%
Trading in the last five days has seen a 17% rise and stock prices have risen 1% to $ 179.90.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc.
AMD,
+ 1.86%
Shares on Thursday were up 1.4% to $ 90.69, up 15.4% from five trading days ago.

In cryptocurrency ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF
BITO,
-1.71%
Thursday was down 3% to $ 14.20, Short Bitcoin Strategy ETF
BITI,
+ 1.84%
It increased by 3% to $ 34.77. Valkyrie Bitcoin Strategy ETF
BTF,
-2.08%
3.2% down to $ 8.84, VanEck Bitcoin Strategy ETF
XBTF,
-2.03%
It fell 3.6% to $ 22.26.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust
GBTC,
-3.47%
It was down 3.9% to $ 14.97.

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