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This month, the crypto community is investigating three key dates that could have a significant impact on the crypto market trajectory and this year’s broader US macroeconomic environment.
Data on the Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) and inflation will be released on July 13. It was decided on July 26-27 whether to raise interest rates further, and on July 28, US gross domestic product (GDP) estimates for the second quarter of 2022 indicate whether the country is in a technological recession. I understand.
Micahelvande Poppe, CEO and founder of crypto consultant and education platform Eight Global, told his 614,300 Twitter followers on July 4 that he was “focusing on next week’s CPI data,” Bitcoin 20,000. Added a bullish forecast for above the dollar price.
It’s a blurry chart, but you’re probably looking at $ 28,000 #BitcoinIf $ 20K can be flipped (and watch $ 23K in the meantime).
Next week’s CPI data and Feds are in the spotlight, which makes sense. pic.twitter.com/pcWwEmkoHT
Michalvan de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 4, 2022
Co-founder of The Crypto Academy, known as “Wolves of Crypto” on Twitter. Said His followers paid attention to the date and added that lower than expected CPI could “catalyze dead cat bounce” in Bitcoin.
“Focus on the number of CPI on July 13. If the CPI goes down, that will trigger a dead cat bounce.”
CPI is one of the benchmarks for measuring how inflation progresses by measuring average changes in consumer prices based on a representative basket of household goods and services.
Continued rise in inflation can affect demand for cryptocurrencies, and consumers will have to spend more than they used to.
Interestingly, Bitcoin was created in the midst of high inflation after the 2008 global financial crisis and was touted as an inflation hedge due to its fixed supply and shortage, but in recent years cryptocurrencies have become traditional high-tech stocks. Works consistently Less than inflation prevention..
Next scheduled release The Consumer Price Index is forecast by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on July 13, 2022.
According to Trading Economics, the current consensus on inflation (CPI) in June is 8.7%, slightly higher than 8.6% in May.
It is one of the most significant monthly rises in 28 years after raising interest rates by 75 basis points in June, and interest rates are expected to rise further after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later this month. ..
Raising interest rates is one of the primary tools used by the Federal Reserve and the US Central Bank to manage inflation by slowing the economy. Rising interest rates can lead to higher borrowing costs and discourage consumer and corporate spending and lending.
It can also apply downward pressure Risky asset pricesInvestors, such as cryptocurrencies, can start earning decent returns simply by depositing money in interest-bearing accounts or low-risk assets.
This month, the FOMC will decide whether to impose a 50 basis point or 75 basis point increase. Charlie Bilello, Founder and CEO of Compound Capital Advisors, has bet on higher amounts.
Expectations for a Fed rate hike at the next four FOMC meetings …
-July: 75 bps rises from 2.25% to 2.50%
-September: Raised from 2.75% to 3.00% at 50 bps
-November: Raised from 3.25% to 3.50% at 50 bps
-December: Increased from 3.50% to 3.75% at 25 bpsCharliebilello (@charliebilello) June 28, 2022
On July 28, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release a preliminary estimate of US GDP for the second quarter of 2022.
After recording a -1.6% decline in GDP in the first quarter of 2022, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDP Now tracker expects GDP growth to decline by -2.1% in the second quarter of 2022.
If GDP declines for the second consecutive quarter, the United States will fall into a “technical recession.”
Related: On the verge of recession: Can Bitcoin survive the first global economic crisis?
The US economy should be officially labeled as recession, it Scheduled to start in 2023Bitcoin faces the first full-scale recession in history and could see a continuous decline alongside tech stocks.
Despite the dark macro forecasts, some of the key crypto experts see the recent macrocatalytic collapse of the crypto market as an overall positive sign of the industry.
Coinapult co-founder, CEO and founder of ShapeShift, crypto expert Erik Voorhees said that the current crypto crash is the first crypto crash due to non-crypt macro factors. I have the least worries. “
All previous crashes were bubble blows and had nothing to do with the larger world.
This is the first crypto crash that is clearly extrinsic. The result of an unencrypted macro factor.
Maybe this is why, of all the crashes, this was the least worrisome to me.
Erik Voorhees (@ErikVoorhees) July 1, 2022
Alliance DAO’s core contributor, Qiao Wang, created it as well. comment Note to his 131,200 followers that this is the first cycle in which the main bear case was an “extrinsic factor”.
“Do people who are worried about crypto for macros understand how bullish this is?”
“This is the first cycle in which the main bear case is an extrinsic factor. In previous cycles it was endogenous, such as Mt. Gox (2014) and ICO (2018),” he said. explained.
