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Bitcoin (BTC) payments firm Lightspark founder David Marcus has predicted a bearish cycle is likely to continue through 2024, so crypto bulls hope for a quick recovery in the cryptocurrency market. disappointed the party. blog post On December 30th, Marcus, co-creator of Meta’s defunct crypto project Diem, wrote:
“This crypto winter wont end in 2023 and probably wont end in 2024 either. “
He added that it will take several years for the cryptocurrency market to get over abuse of unscrupulous players and proper regulation to begin. Profile bankruptcy also requires several years to rebuild.
Crypto companies that failed in 2022 include hedge fund Three Arrows Capital (3AC), lenders Voyager Digital and Celsius Network, the latest FTX, and lender BlockFi. The bankruptcies of these companies affected millions of users and collectively lost them at least $10 billion.
Marcus called the rapid House of Cards-style collapse of cryptocurrency companies a repeat of Wall Streets greedy early ugliness. Specifically, FTX’s downfall added “hugely unnecessary drama” to an already disastrous year, Marcus noted.
On an optimistic note, however, Marcus added:
“…Finally I believe this [long crypto bear market] In the long run, it will prove to be a profitable reset for legitimate industry players.
Marcus’ prediction that the cryptocurrency winter will continue suggests that the next halving, which is expected to occur in 2024, may not lead to a bull market for Bitcoin. Historically, BTC has enjoyed bull markets throughout 2012, 2016 and 2020, the halving.
Regardless of whether the cryptocurrency market recovers by 2024, Marcus said years of greed will give way to real world applications. he said:
The days of making tokens out of nowhere and making millions are over. The music has stopped.
The cryptocurrency market is returning to normal, creating real value and solving real-world problems, wrote Marcus. This will lead to more innovation in 2023, especially in zero-knowledge (ZK) applications such as payments, asset securitization, decentralized finance (DeFi) and proof of reserves, as well as Layer 1 scaling solutions, Marcus said. I expect. He also added that 2023 may see the Bitcoin network gaining traction again.
Additionally, Marcus expects the Bitcoin Lightning Network to show its potential as the most effective open, interoperable and affordable real-time payment protocol in the world in 2023. But Marcus warns that the prediction could be selfish as his company LightSpark, backed by the a16z crypto and paradigm, is working to extend Bitcoin’s utility through the Lightning Network. Did.
Marcus expects the ongoing free speech debate sparked by Elon Musk’s Twitter hijacking to increase in 2023. It writes that it discusses what content should and should not be moderated.
For the economy as a whole, Marcus said interest rates will continue to rise through the first half of 2023. As a result, borrowing will become more expensive, and companies without a clear path to profitability will continue to struggle to raise capital.
Marcus warned that while higher interest rates would “calm” inflation, the risk of a “full-blown recession” was too high. Additionally, Marcus said tech layoffs will continue in 2023 as companies find leaner and more efficient ways to operate.
On the regulatory side, Marcus expects uncertainty to persist into the next year. he said:
We need clarity and new regulations for digital assets/crypto, guidelines for social media companies on content moderation, and guardrails for AI. [artificial intelligence] innovation. Sadly, I am increasingly skeptical of our ability to reach agreement on a legislative or regulatory approach that will achieve the right balance in these areas.
As regulators ponder options and delay legislation, industry leaders will be charged with “doing what they believe is right in the void left by a stalled legislative system.” , writes Marcus.
Finally, Marcus said technology will continue to be at the forefront of solving “humankind’s greatest problems.” Bitcoin mining, for example, which is often criticized for being environmentally harmful, has proven its critics wrong by regulating demand across the power grid and trapping methane. The pace of renewable energy adoption is also picking up, Marcus said.
The collapse of a company believed to be at the forefront of crypto market growth hurts trust, stability and value, feeding crypto critics in 2022. Created opportunities to build new.Added:
We will come out stronger and better from this era, but it will take patience and determination. There is no doubt that the next few years will continue to be challenging, but for those who find the will to move forward. , will be an incredibly rewarding and fulfilling year.
